Liverpool’s Champions League campaign has been immaculate. Three games, three wins, twelve goals scored, and a brand of attacking football that has made a mockery of their Premier League struggles. But as the Reds arrive in Istanbul for a first-ever meeting with Fenerbahçe, they encounter a force that has historically been their kryptonite: Turkish opposition on Turkish soil.
The numbers are stark and uncomfortable for a club of Liverpool’s stature. The Reds have never won an away game against a Turkish side in the European Cup or Champions League in six attempts—one draw and five defeats, the last four all ending in losses, three of them by a 1-0 scoreline. Add in the hostile atmosphere of the Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium, a sold-out crowd, and an interim manager with a point to prove against his former club, and the stage is set for a genuine test of Liverpool’s perfect record.
Liverpool’s European Form: A Different Animal
The contrast between Liverpool’s domestic and European performances this season is one of the most striking narratives of the campaign. In the Premier League, they have scored just 11 goals in nine matches, and Sunday’s 1-0 defeat to Arsenal was the first time on record that they failed to register a single shot on target at Anfield.
In Europe, however, it has been a different story entirely. Twelve goals in three games—a 2-1 win over Atlético Madrid, a 6-3 victory at LASK, and a 4-3 thriller against Villarreal—represents their best tally after three games of a European campaign since 1980-81, the season they went on to lift the trophy. Seven different players have found the net, and the attack has been fluid, ruthless, and uncharacteristically clinical.
Andoni Iraola acknowledged the disparity but dismissed it as a concern. “We have had better results in the Champions League and Carabao Cup than the Premier League, but it’s very early in the season for these comparisons,” he said. “We want to continue this run. This is a good chance to get to 12 points and try to qualify, and then try to finish in the top eight”.
The Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool strong favourites, assigning them a 59% chance of victory, with Fenerbahçe at 19.5% and a draw at 21.5%. But Opta’s numbers cannot account for the weight of history, the cauldron of a Turkish stadium, or the emotional charge of Dirk Kuyt’s return.
Fenerbahçe: A Giant in Crisis
On paper, Fenerbahçe should be ideal opponents for a team seeking to extend a perfect run. The Turkish giants have two points from their opening three Champions League games, sit 28th in the 36-team league phase, and are without a win in the competition. Their campaign includes a 6-0 humiliation at Aston Villa, followed by a 2-2 draw at home to Slavia Prague in which they surrendered a two-goal lead in the 90th minute.
Domestically, the picture is equally turbulent. Fenerbahçe sit fifth in the Süper Lig, having lost four of their ten games, and they have suffered consecutive 2-1 defeats—including a loss to Galatasaray that cost manager Ismail Kartal his job.
But that is where the narrative becomes complicated. Kartal’s replacement is Dirk Kuyt, the former Liverpool forward who returned to Fenerbahçe as an assistant in the summer and was elevated to interim head coach last week. Kuyt spent six years at Anfield and three years at Fenerbahçe as a player, and he understands both clubs intimately.
“Tomorrow will be a very special occasion for me, but at the stage we are in, I’m not the important person,” Kuyt said. “It’s about the club. We have really good players but we need to show up. Liverpool are an amazing team but so are Fenerbahçe. If the fans show up, I think Europe will see how big this fanbase is”.
Kuyt’s warning was explicit: “From the first moment the players enter the pitch, I’m 100% convinced the fans will be behind us. That will be our biggest power, our biggest chance to have a good performance and hopefully a good result. If the crowd are behind us, the people in Europe won’t believe what they see”.
The Turkish Hoodoo: Liverpool’s Historical Burden
Kuyt’s words carry extra weight because of Liverpool’s record in Turkey. The Reds have played 15 matches against Turkish opposition in their history, winning seven, drawing two, and losing six—but their away record is dire.
Their only away victory against a Turkish club came in 2010, a 2-1 win at Trabzonspor in which—poetically—Kuyt himself scored the late winner. Every other visit has ended in defeat or a draw. Last season, they lost twice to Galatasaray in Istanbul, both by 1-0 scorelines, marking the first time in their European history they had lost two away games against the same opponent in a single season.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have been difficult to beat at home in Europe. They have drawn their last three home matches in the competition, including qualifiers against Lyon, Roma, and Slavia Prague, and have only once previously had a run of four consecutive home draws in Europe. A fourth straight home draw would be unprecedented in their history—but so would a Liverpool victory in Turkey.
Team News: Key Absences and Returning Faces
Liverpool’s squad has been depleted by injuries. Ryan Gravenberch has been ruled out with a heel injury described by Iraola as “a fracture of the heel” that is causing persistent pain. He joins Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley, Giovanni Leoni, and Jeremie Frimpong on the absentee list. Federico Chiesa and Wataru Endo are ineligible for the Champions League squad.
In Gravenberch’s absence, Trey Nyoni is expected to continue in midfield. The 19-year-old has impressed Iraola, who said: “He is playing most of the games—or even all the games lately—so we trust him. He is doing very well”. Dominik Szoboszlai is pushing for a start after returning from a hamstring injury as a substitute against Arsenal. Alexander Isak is expected to lead the line, with Rio Ngumoha potentially replacing Cody Gakpo in attack after an electric performance against Villarreal.
Fenerbahçe are without Nathan Aké and Marco Asensio through injury, and Kojo Peprah Oppong is a doubt after picking up a muscle issue against Göztepe. Mason Greenwood missed the defeat to Göztepe through illness but has returned to training and is expected to start. The hosts will rely on a squad rich in Premier League experience: Ederson, Nelson Semedo, N’Golo Kanté, Matteo Guendouzi, and Romelu Lukaku are all available.
Press, Control, and the Power of the Crowd
Iraola’s game plan is clear. “Fenerbahçe have very good players in midfield and a very good technical level,” he said. “If we allow them a lot of time on the ball or don’t press them properly, we are going to suffer. We have to be good in our press, control the game, and not allow them to win confidence”.
The key for Liverpool will be whether they can impose their European form on a hostile away environment. Their pressing game has been the foundation of their Champions League success, but pressing in Istanbul—against a team desperate for a reaction and a crowd desperate to inspire one—is a different proposition.
For Fenerbahçe, the plan will be to stay compact, use the crowd as an energy source, and exploit any hesitation from a Liverpool side that has shown vulnerability in domestic competition. The return of Greenwood and the presence of Lukaku give them attacking outlets, while Kanté and Guendouzi provide the midfield steel to disrupt Liverpool’s rhythm.
The Bottom Line
Can Fenerbahçe end Liverpool’s perfect run? The honest answer is: yes, but they will need everything to align.
The Opta supercomputer favours Liverpool at 59%, but its simulations cannot measure the weight of history, the roar of a sold-out Şükrü Saracoğlu, or the motivational power of Kuyt facing his former club. Liverpool have the better team, the better form, and the better squad. But they have never won in Turkey, and Fenerbahçe have drawn their last three home games in Europe.
The most likely outcome, based on the data and the quality of the sides, is a Liverpool victory—narrow, hard-fought, and earned through the attacking brilliance that has defined their European campaign. But a draw is not out of the question, and an upset is not beyond the realm of possibility. Kuyt has promised that Europe “won’t believe what they see” when the Fenerbahçe fans show up. Liverpool will be hoping that what they see is a fourth straight Champions League win—and the end of a Turkish hoodoo that has haunted them for over a decade.
The Reds have the quality to win. The question is whether they have the nerve to do it in the one place where they have so often faltered.
Do you think Liverpool will maintain their perfect Champions League record in Istanbul, or will Fenerbahçe and Dirk Kuyt spring a surprise?
