The 2028 presidential election is still more than two years away, but the battle for the Democratic nomination is already taking shape. With an open primary and no incumbent president seeking re-election, the field is unusually wide open—and unusually unsettled. The party’s most recognizable names are jostling with fresh faces, progressives are competing with centrists, and the early frontrunner is a candidate who lost the last election.
Here is the state of the race as of August 2026.
The Frontrunners
Kamala Harris – The Comeback Kid?
Poll after poll shows former Vice President Kamala Harris leading the Democratic primary field. According to The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll, she commands about 28% support among Democrats—a position she has held consistently since October 2025. She is particularly strong among young voters (47% of 18-29 year olds) and Black voters (49%), two crucial Democratic constituencies.
But there is a problem. Harris’s national lead masks significant weaknesses. She trails several potential opponents in New Hampshire and has even been behind in her home state of California. And while she has publicly said she is “thinking about” running, some of her former allies are already looking for “fresh” faces.
The bigger question: Are Democrats willing to nominate a woman for a third time in 12 years? That glass ceiling remains stubbornly unshattered.
Gavin Newsom – The California Factor
California Governor Gavin Newsom has been a near-constant presence in the 2028 conversation. He consistently polls second, with around 14-16% support. In Nevada, a key early state, an Emerson College poll found Newsom leading the field with 37% support.
Newsom’s path is complicated by a Department of Justice investigation that he claims is politically motivated by President Trump. Yet ironically, the investigation may help him: prediction markets showed his odds rising after he went public with the probe. As one Democratic strategist put it, “a bogus partisan investigation is rocket fuel for fundraising”.
Still, Newsom faces the “Hillary Clinton problem”—the perception that he is too California, too polished, too establishment to win a national election.
The Rising Challengers
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – The Progressive Surge
The biggest surprise of the 2028 cycle so far is the rise of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The New York progressive has surged past Newsom and Sen. Jon Ossoff on prediction markets, with Polymarket giving her a 22% chance of winning the nomination. She is now the favorite on Kalshi, with 21% odds.
AOC has been in the news constantly—from announcing she is freezing her eggs to declaring “Woke 1 was crazy” in an interview, suggesting that pandemic-era extreme ideas should be viewed with more grace. Democratic strategist Jenna Arnold argued that Ocasio-Cortez’s “transparently authentic” style would connect with voters.
But can a self-described democratic socialist win a general election? Early polls suggest she struggles against Republicans, trailing both Vance and Rubio in head-to-head matchups.
Pete Buttigieg – The Second Chance
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is quietly building a formidable campaign infrastructure. He has raised $1.6 million for his leadership PAC in the first half of 2025 alone. He is traveling to early states like South Carolina and Nevada, and he is polling well—12% nationally and an impressive 25% in New Hampshire.
Buttigieg’s 2020 campaign died in South Carolina, where he failed to connect with Black voters. He is now trying to fix that, visiting historically Black universities and receiving standing ovations in Black churches. The state now votes first in the Democratic primary, making its Black electorate even more critical.
Jon Ossoff – The Georgia Senator
Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia is emerging as a surprisingly strong contender. He polls at 13% nationally and performs well against Republicans—leading both Vance and Rubio in hypothetical matchups. But there is a catch: Ossoff has publicly said he has “zero interest in running for president in 2028”. Whether that changes remains to be seen.
The Wildcards
Josh Shapiro – The Pennsylvania Governor
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is the candidate many Democrats think could actually win a general election—but he is stuck in the low single digits in national polls. The Washington Post recently placed him in the “standouts” category alongside Newsom. Shapiro is Jewish, talks extensively about his faith, and has criticized the party’s most liberal wing on issues like Israel. He is up for re-election in 2026 and is pouring $3.3 million into helping Democrats in Pennsylvania—a clear signal of national ambition.
Gretchen Whitmer – The Will-She-Won’t-She
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has been on the presidential shortlist since 2020. In May 2026, she said she would not run—then walked it back hours later, saying “never say never”. She is term-limited and finishing eight years as governor. Her approval rating sits at 52%. She is a proven winner in a critical swing state. But she has not committed, and the window for a late entry is closing.
Wes Moore and Cory Booker – The Black Contenders
Maryland Governor Wes Moore and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker are both seen as potential candidates. But neither has generated significant momentum. As one strategist noted, “Both of those candidates would really have to build up some sort of momentum that just is not there for them right now”.
The Factors That Will Shape the Race
1. The Primary Calendar
The Democratic National Committee has moved South Carolina to the front of the primary calendar, replacing Iowa and New Hampshire. This is intended to give Black voters—the party’s most loyal constituency—a greater voice. For candidates like Buttigieg who struggled with Black voters in 2020, this is a test. For Harris, it could be a lifeline.
2. The Biden Administration’s Legacy
Every major Democratic candidate except AOC is tied to the Biden administration in some way. Harris was Vice President. Buttigieg was Transportation Secretary. Newsom was a surrogate and ally. Republicans will make the argument: if you couldn’t handle the Biden economy, the border, or the Department of Transportation, you can’t handle the Oval Office. This is a vulnerability none of them can fully escape.
3. Electability vs. Energy
The fundamental tension in the Democratic primary is between electability and energy. The candidates who poll best nationally—Harris, Newsom, Buttigieg—are also the ones who carry the most baggage. The candidates who might actually win a general election—Shapiro, Beshear—are barely known. And the candidate generating the most grassroots energy—AOC—struggles in head-to-head matchups.
A Race Without a Clear Favorite
For the first time in decades, the Democratic presidential primary is genuinely wide open. No candidate has a clear path to the nomination. Harris leads in national polls but has deep vulnerabilities. Newsom has the profile and the money but carries California baggage. Buttigieg is building quietly but needs to prove he can win Black voters. AOC is surging but faces electability questions. And a host of governors—Shapiro, Whitmer, Moore, Beshear—are waiting in the wings.
The 2026 midterms will reshuffle the board. The first primary debates will separate contenders from pretenders. And by the time South Carolina votes in early 2028, the field will look very different than it does today.
One thing is certain: the race for the Democratic nomination is just beginning—and it will be one of the most consequential in modern American history.
What do you think? Who should lead the Democrats in 2028?
